The market is up close to 350 points from the low of its overnight trade on the following.
1 billion shares (half the daily average volume)
Bank of America being upgraded by Goldmans to Conviction Buy, despite copping Fitch downgrade.
Bombay Sensex up 17.5% in 4 minutes, trading halted for the whole day.
NAHB Housing numbers out at a 16 point figure, as expected.
I'm giddy, flabbergasted and confused.
I am no longer short, and will not go short anymore. This market is on drugs, and will not cease to go up until I have covered all my shorts. Mark this day, the market will go on a 3000 point fall as of now.
Tuesday, May 19, 2009
Saturday, May 9, 2009
Bull, Bear or rubbish?
I cannot believe this.
74 billion needed.
And the banks run. Harder.
539k jobs lost. Let's buy more.
In fact, since the news broke of Bank of America needing 34 billion dollars, the stock has put on 40%.
If someone can explain this to me I would love to hear this. How is it possible that so many billions of dollars are required to be raised in such a short period of time, add that to the ridiculous Treasury auction on Thursday, the equity market continues to power on?
I have been short and getting murdered. Not in a big way, just smalls, because of the market momentum.....it's as if people are buying and no longer concerned about how much money these banks have lost.
8 weeks and 2000 points....and the oil price!!!!!
Thursday's weak bond auction should have sent the market careening off the cliff yesterday with more follow through today. 8 weeks ago, the UK gilts suffered the same fate and global markets sold off for 3 days.
I cannot understand this market, and I maintain my shorts to the best of my ability. This market can put on another 50% and I will still not be damaged, that's how small my position is now.
I cannot understand how anyone who has bought shares in the past 8 weeks is IGNORING the warning signs and not selling out here, after having been through 18 months of hell. Unless these are the very same guys who have been short all the way and now are determined to buy it all the way back up to 14000.
Well I guess this is possible.
FT alphaville blogs, someone commented that bond yields at 3.7% represent the FTSE at 6400 (more or less) by 2019. I can't quite follow that reasoning, and if someone can elaborate this that would be excellent.
cheers for now, going to bed.
Dow jones 8540 and powering ahead.
74 billion needed.
And the banks run. Harder.
539k jobs lost. Let's buy more.
In fact, since the news broke of Bank of America needing 34 billion dollars, the stock has put on 40%.
If someone can explain this to me I would love to hear this. How is it possible that so many billions of dollars are required to be raised in such a short period of time, add that to the ridiculous Treasury auction on Thursday, the equity market continues to power on?
I have been short and getting murdered. Not in a big way, just smalls, because of the market momentum.....it's as if people are buying and no longer concerned about how much money these banks have lost.
8 weeks and 2000 points....and the oil price!!!!!
Thursday's weak bond auction should have sent the market careening off the cliff yesterday with more follow through today. 8 weeks ago, the UK gilts suffered the same fate and global markets sold off for 3 days.
I cannot understand this market, and I maintain my shorts to the best of my ability. This market can put on another 50% and I will still not be damaged, that's how small my position is now.
I cannot understand how anyone who has bought shares in the past 8 weeks is IGNORING the warning signs and not selling out here, after having been through 18 months of hell. Unless these are the very same guys who have been short all the way and now are determined to buy it all the way back up to 14000.
Well I guess this is possible.
FT alphaville blogs, someone commented that bond yields at 3.7% represent the FTSE at 6400 (more or less) by 2019. I can't quite follow that reasoning, and if someone can elaborate this that would be excellent.
cheers for now, going to bed.
Dow jones 8540 and powering ahead.
Tuesday, May 5, 2009
what stress test
Nasdaq is up 17% for the year.
S&P is now up for the year.
The Dow Jones is still lagging.
All this in spite of the impending capital raising needed by BoA, Citi and Wells Fargo.
I'm at lost.
S&P is now up for the year.
The Dow Jones is still lagging.
All this in spite of the impending capital raising needed by BoA, Citi and Wells Fargo.
I'm at lost.
Friday, April 24, 2009
The mind boggles.
Amazing.
The Dow Jones has forgotten how to go down. The economic data was absolutely scary. Record highs in continuing claims for jobless people. 3% decline in existing home sales (but prices went up).
The S&P cracked 837 for about 10 minutes, and threatened to careen off the cliff. It probably sucked alot of shorts on (like me) and when it failed to fall, they ended up covering at 845 (like me), as the day wore on, the remnants of short term daily shorters began covering and American Express optimism took the Dow through the final push.
Add to that, the Aussie SPI is now up 19 points after being up 80 points yesterday for a net loss on the Dow of 10 points (take yesterday's 80 point fall and today's 70 point rise).
Add to that, copper got destroyed last night on the back of the IMF's gloomy forecast. And now after market Microsoft, Amex and Amazon just posted results that have sent their shares up.
Microsoft - 39 cents vs 39 cents
Amex - 32 cents vs 12 cents
Amazon - 41 cents vs 31 cents.
All three stocks are up in aftermarket, AFTER a monster rally.
Nobody is concerned even the slightest bit about Chrysler going belly up next week.
Art Cashin, the only other person on CNBC worth listening to (the other being Rick Santelli) has been saying the markets are going to pull back significantly after a washing out period, seems to have got it right. The market seems to be trading in between 837 to 860, which gives you about 20 points to get it right, and 200 points on the Dow.
The good news for bears, is that the lows are getting lower and the highs are getting lower too. The bad news is they keep getting caught, through false breaks like today. And when you are so used to seeing markets spurt (sorry but there is no other word to describe it) upwards on some new fangled statement so idiot politician makes.
I'll say one thing though, the VIX is a perfect measure. This is a market that currently has no fear. Which probably means Mr. Cashin is correct. The Dow could be stuck in a 200 point range all of the remaining days of April and the first half of May.
It actually bodes well for the ASX 200. A stable trading range on the Dow will actually allow the ASX 200 to build a base around 3700-3750 and send it soaring should the Dow begin to break higher post this consolidation period.
The only way you are going to get a sustained rally on the Dow from here is if there is no more bad news. So at the very least, till next quarterly earnings report. The market needs to see that the bank earnings were not a once off, for the market to really find legs.
Therefore, you can argue that the best case scenario for the markets leading up to the next quarter earnings period, is for the market to range bound in a 300 point range (call it either side of 8000) and the worst case scenario is if something out of the blue shocks the market and sends the Dow falling off the cliff.
Stay short and strong. But I know the feeling of shorts going against you and it is the worst feeling on earth.
The Dow Jones has forgotten how to go down. The economic data was absolutely scary. Record highs in continuing claims for jobless people. 3% decline in existing home sales (but prices went up).
The S&P cracked 837 for about 10 minutes, and threatened to careen off the cliff. It probably sucked alot of shorts on (like me) and when it failed to fall, they ended up covering at 845 (like me), as the day wore on, the remnants of short term daily shorters began covering and American Express optimism took the Dow through the final push.
Add to that, the Aussie SPI is now up 19 points after being up 80 points yesterday for a net loss on the Dow of 10 points (take yesterday's 80 point fall and today's 70 point rise).
Add to that, copper got destroyed last night on the back of the IMF's gloomy forecast. And now after market Microsoft, Amex and Amazon just posted results that have sent their shares up.
Microsoft - 39 cents vs 39 cents
Amex - 32 cents vs 12 cents
Amazon - 41 cents vs 31 cents.
All three stocks are up in aftermarket, AFTER a monster rally.
Nobody is concerned even the slightest bit about Chrysler going belly up next week.
Art Cashin, the only other person on CNBC worth listening to (the other being Rick Santelli) has been saying the markets are going to pull back significantly after a washing out period, seems to have got it right. The market seems to be trading in between 837 to 860, which gives you about 20 points to get it right, and 200 points on the Dow.
The good news for bears, is that the lows are getting lower and the highs are getting lower too. The bad news is they keep getting caught, through false breaks like today. And when you are so used to seeing markets spurt (sorry but there is no other word to describe it) upwards on some new fangled statement so idiot politician makes.
I'll say one thing though, the VIX is a perfect measure. This is a market that currently has no fear. Which probably means Mr. Cashin is correct. The Dow could be stuck in a 200 point range all of the remaining days of April and the first half of May.
It actually bodes well for the ASX 200. A stable trading range on the Dow will actually allow the ASX 200 to build a base around 3700-3750 and send it soaring should the Dow begin to break higher post this consolidation period.
The only way you are going to get a sustained rally on the Dow from here is if there is no more bad news. So at the very least, till next quarterly earnings report. The market needs to see that the bank earnings were not a once off, for the market to really find legs.
Therefore, you can argue that the best case scenario for the markets leading up to the next quarter earnings period, is for the market to range bound in a 300 point range (call it either side of 8000) and the worst case scenario is if something out of the blue shocks the market and sends the Dow falling off the cliff.
Stay short and strong. But I know the feeling of shorts going against you and it is the worst feeling on earth.
Thursday, April 23, 2009
Bear market rally fizzles.
Finally, we see some semblance of profit taking/shorting.
The results thus far have been non-inspiring. The economic data has been poor at best, and the market has been rising on thinning volumes.
And it kept on trying to go higher. Commentaries around the market were asking the typical top of the rally question..."Is this for real?"
Roubini is calling everyone an idiot. The best thing he said was "yellow weeds, not green shoots".
Add to all of this, midday today, General Motors said that they would not be paying back government money. I couldn't believe it to see the market rallying past 8000 on the back of this news. People were singing praises of Wells Fargo, and ignoring Morgan Stanley's shocker, and MacDonald's weaker numbers. They definately ignored Boeing's.
At the last half hour, the market went for a final push about the S&P resistance of 860, and there was no one to follow through.
About a week ago, Jim Cramer made the call that this market was never coming back down, time to get long and loud. This was when the index was at 8100. I took that to mean short the hell out of the market, and so far I'm sitting pretty with a nice short, but it has not been an easy ride. It's tried to punch through 8150 twice, and tried to rally past 8100 twice before it fell to sub 8000 two days ago. And today it threatened to go through 8000 again. At 8030, I was thinking of closing my short and going long, before I decided to forget about the whole thing and watch Man United try to lose to Portsmouth. At half time, I sauntered back into the office and lo and behold we had a sell off in the process.
By the time the Dow finished its session, it had fallen close to 200 points in half an hour, before rallying a tad in the futures after market thanks to EBay's results smashing forecasts.
What people keep forgetting are these forecasts were lowered so much during the confessional period, that if anyone misses them (and there have been a few big ones like Morgan Stanley and Boeing), their prices should get destroyed.
Anyway, look for the Aussie market to be buoyed a little today. S&P ASX 200 fell yesterday despite the Dow staging a triple digit rally the night before, and options expiry is today, so expect some finessing on the close. The market is probably sold a fair few puts as well, which potentially could swing the market drastically if the strikes break.
Oh dear me. Apple just posted 1.84 per share earnings versus 1.09 estimate. That actually is a smashing result.
Maybe it's time to cover the shorts.
Naaaaaaaaaaaaaa.
The results thus far have been non-inspiring. The economic data has been poor at best, and the market has been rising on thinning volumes.
And it kept on trying to go higher. Commentaries around the market were asking the typical top of the rally question..."Is this for real?"
Roubini is calling everyone an idiot. The best thing he said was "yellow weeds, not green shoots".
Add to all of this, midday today, General Motors said that they would not be paying back government money. I couldn't believe it to see the market rallying past 8000 on the back of this news. People were singing praises of Wells Fargo, and ignoring Morgan Stanley's shocker, and MacDonald's weaker numbers. They definately ignored Boeing's.
At the last half hour, the market went for a final push about the S&P resistance of 860, and there was no one to follow through.
About a week ago, Jim Cramer made the call that this market was never coming back down, time to get long and loud. This was when the index was at 8100. I took that to mean short the hell out of the market, and so far I'm sitting pretty with a nice short, but it has not been an easy ride. It's tried to punch through 8150 twice, and tried to rally past 8100 twice before it fell to sub 8000 two days ago. And today it threatened to go through 8000 again. At 8030, I was thinking of closing my short and going long, before I decided to forget about the whole thing and watch Man United try to lose to Portsmouth. At half time, I sauntered back into the office and lo and behold we had a sell off in the process.
By the time the Dow finished its session, it had fallen close to 200 points in half an hour, before rallying a tad in the futures after market thanks to EBay's results smashing forecasts.
What people keep forgetting are these forecasts were lowered so much during the confessional period, that if anyone misses them (and there have been a few big ones like Morgan Stanley and Boeing), their prices should get destroyed.
Anyway, look for the Aussie market to be buoyed a little today. S&P ASX 200 fell yesterday despite the Dow staging a triple digit rally the night before, and options expiry is today, so expect some finessing on the close. The market is probably sold a fair few puts as well, which potentially could swing the market drastically if the strikes break.
Oh dear me. Apple just posted 1.84 per share earnings versus 1.09 estimate. That actually is a smashing result.
Maybe it's time to cover the shorts.
Naaaaaaaaaaaaaa.
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